In the race to lead the Lone Star State, the choices are getting hairier and hairier…literally.

 

Picture one 2010 scenario: The perfectly-coiffed Rick Perry, longest-serving Governor in Texas history, squeaks by to win the Republican Primary to face-off against Democratic multi-millionaire hair exec, Farouk Shami (think BioSilk and the CHI hair-straightening irons) or an even hairier opponent, Kinky Friedman, whose cult following has expanded with each bid for Governor.

 

Seriously, in the “anybody-but-Perry” category, there are no standouts among the motley crew of Democrats. They desperately need a candidate who captures the hearts and minds of Texans or the race for Governor will be decided in the Republican Primary with the promise of orchestrated thrills and chills like Friday night wrestling: Smack-down 2010, Welcome to the Thunderdome.

 

The Politics of Indecision

U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison aims to send Governor Perry into early retirement and she has the money to make it happen. Kay’s problem is that she suffers from the politics of indecision.

 

In 2006, she intended to run for Governor, and then sat out the race. Some say that the state’s conservatives sent her a message:  Not now Kay, next time. She says that the Governor pledged to retire in 2010. Either way, she’s a candidate now, and has yet to announce her retirement from the Senate, leaving politicos in limbo questioning when the Governor will appoint her replacement and who that might be…  Kay, it’s time to make a decision already.

 

Kay’s campaign is all about pointing to Perry’s failures and saying that he’s been there too long. Tough talk coming from a Washington insider. Her 16 years in the U.S. Senate make for a tough sell as she tries to distance herself from Washington and its policies.

 

Without a clear campaign strategy, she’s tried to out-right Rick Perry and it’s backfired. Labeling Perry “governor-for-life” isn’t enough for Kay to win. She needs to claim the party moderates and change the face of the GOP primary. At risk is her base of women. In particular, those women whose support she won when she voted against overturning Roe v. Wade, and who may cross party lines to vote for her.

 

Compounding Kay’s ability to connect with Texas women is mounting speculation that Governor Perry may name the first Latina to the Texas Supreme Court in a move to solidify Hispanic voters who are still stinging over the Senator’s snub of Justice Sonia Sotomayor, the first Latina to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court.

 

Though recent polls give Perry a lead over Hutchison, they also show large numbers of undecided voters. Enter Debra Medina, a Ron Paul Republican who chairs the Wharton County GOP (near Houston). Count on her to split the conservative vote. More importantly, she’ll dip into Kay’s base of women and join Perry in branding the Senator a flip flopper who shouldn’t be trusted to lead Texas.

 

Flip Flopper

Former Forth Worth State Representative Tom Schieffer may lead the field in flip flopping. The two-time Bush appointee and former George W. Bush business partner (co-owners of the Texas Rangers baseball team) has Democrats questioning his pedigree – it’s a bit too red for most of the party faithful to sign on to his gubernatorial bid. His campaign spends most of their time trying to prove their credentials leaving little time to articulate a vision or to connect with Texas Democrats.

 

Most voters stay home during non-Presidential elections or sit out the primary and cast their vote in the November General Election. This means that candidates must increasingly target their message and presence on the many social media platforms like YouTube, Facebook and Twitter to turn out primary voters.

 

Take Hank Gilbert, the highest Democratic vote getter on the 2006 ballot. A lifelong Democrat who ran for Agriculture Commissioner, Hank’s a simple man, a farmer chock full of Texas grit who lacks the resources to spread the word about his campaign for Texas Governor. His social media strategy amounts to four photos on his Facebook page (let’s hope the beauty queen in that photo is related). Democrats may need to forfeit the social media advantage to Kinky. There are at least five Kinky Friedman groups on Facebook, 478 videos on YouTube, and Kinky’s crew tweets to boot.

 

It’s time candidates move forward to fully embrace 21st Century American politics in Texas.

 

In this new political landscape, shifting demographics and social media have changed almost everything in Texas, although a good media strategy doesn’t guarantee victory. Candidates who ignore these new realities are sure to lose. Remember Tony Sanchez?

 

Lone Star Latinos

Since 1977, I’ve had a hand in scores of campaigns from school boards to presidential elections and have seen record numbers of Latinos running for office and turning out to vote throughout the country. Nowhere is this truer than in Texas.

 

Texas’ Hispanic population is the second largest in the nation with roughly 3.6 million Latinos registered to vote.  The largest voting blocs – Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin, El Paso and the Valley — boast burgeoning Hispanic populations with the fastest growing numbers of Latino voters.

 

This is good news for Democrats who are focusing new resources on Lone Star Latinos. Democrats are getting a much needed boost in 2010 from the Democratic National Committee. This week Virginia Governor Time Kaine became the first DNC Chair to ever visit South Texas holding the quarterly meeting of the 300-plus DNC members in Austin this weekend for the first time since the 70’s. Proof of their commitment is the team of 10 full-time political strategists on the ground working everyday to turn Texas blue…and they’re still hiring.

 

Democrats are banking on the fact that Texas is trending blue in a historically red state. The current Gallup poll (Hyperlink: http://www.gallup.com/poll/122003/Political-Party-Affiliation-States-Blue-Red-Far.aspx) ranks Texas as competitive – 42% of Texans call themselves Democrats; 40% Republican. While Democrats are much better than Republicans at losing statewide elections, both parties have a decent shot at losing the important down-ballot races for the Texas House – Democrats are two seats shy of a majority.

 

Hispanic candidates rarely fare well in GOP primaries, and this year Latinos have little reason to vote Republican …wait, there’s Ted Cruz running for AG, another Republican with good hair.

 

Change & Latino Politics: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

Week of January 27th 2009

 

 

The GOOD:        2^nd Annual Latino State of the Union

 

America’s premier Latino organizations – LULAC, NCLR and MALDEF – convened at the Hyatt Regency in Washington DC last week for a roundtable on law, policy and civil rights. Dubbed the 2^nd Annual Latino State of the Union, the groups held panel discussions entitled Priorities Under the Obama Administration; Putting a Quality Education Within Reach; Hate Crimes and Civil Rights Enforcement; The Economy in Retrospect: What Went Wrong to What’s Next; and Bringing It All Together and Taking Action in 2009.

 

During his address, MALDEF President John Trasviña mentioned that Latinos have “friends in high places” in the Obama administration, like the Interior Secretary Ken Salazar; the Labor Secretary Hilda Solis; and the White House’s director of intergovernmental affairs, Cecilia Muñoz, formerly a vice president of NCLR.

 

The Latino political blog www.latinopoliticsblog.com reported on the 2^nd Annual Latino State of the Union as did last week’s New York Times politics blog. Except for these two news sources and a couple of Spanish news outlets, the gathering went unnoticed by mainstream media.

 

That these highly-respected advocacy groups would formalize a Latino agenda is commendable. That so few were part of the discussion and that even fewer know about the Latino agenda points to the challenge that lies ahead: The challenge of including Latinos in the life of our country.

 

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/19/immigration-tops-latinos-wish-list-at-dc-meeting/

 

 

 

The BAD:           No Regrets? Bush, Cheney and Gonzales, Oh My!

It seems none of the out-going Bush Administration has any regrets from their tenure in the White House. Not the war in Iraq, not the economy, not the handling of Katrina … no regrets.

BUSH - Columnist Ellen Goodman put it best, “The 43rd president is going home with less remorse and fewer regrets than my grandchildren express for spilling their cereal.

This is the tenor of the farewell tour being conducted across the landscape from ABC to the American Enterprise Institute. It’s the No Regrets Tour, the non-reflective “reflections by a guy who’s headed out of town.”

George W. Bush will be remembered with names such as Abu Ghraib, Gitmo and Katrina. With phrases such as “weapons of mass destruction” and “mission accomplished.” He came in with a budget surplus and leaves with a massive deficit. He blew the goodwill of the post-9/11 world. But being this president means never having to say you’re sorry. . .

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2008561234_opin26goodman.html

CHENEY - In his first television interview since the presidential election in November, former Vice President Dick Cheney displayed no regrets and gave no ground to his many critics within America and around the world. He summed up his record by saying: “I think, given the circumstances we’ve had to deal with, we’ve done pretty well.”

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/dec/17/dick-cheney-interview-guantanamo-waterboarding

 

 

GONZALES - “As for regrets,” says former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, “I’m not sure how productive it is to lament about things that went wrong. Maybe it was inevitable.” The former AG has had trouble finding new work since he left the Department of Justice. He told NPR that things are looking up: “Gonzales says he is writing a book, and he believes his job prospects will look up when the economy improves and when investigations into actions of his Justice Department are put to rest.”

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/26/alberto-gonzales-i-dont-t_n_160955.html

 

 

 

The UGLY:  Immigration Reform Headed for the Back-Burner

 

Taking to heart an inauguration speech that honored those who “traveled across oceans in search of a new life,” thousands embarked on a campaign last week to make immigration reform a priority for the new president.

Immigrants who lent President Barack Obama their support at the ballot box joined those who cannot vote in marches and prayers, writing letters and raising banners from Miami to Los Angeles to push the issue to the top of Obama’s long to-do list.

In spite of the president’s promise to tackle the thorny issue within his first year in office, even advocates recognized that with two wars and a floundering economy on the table, immigration reform was a tough sell.

Compounding the frustration with comprehensive immigration reform is Obama’s appointment to Homeland Security, Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, who became the first woman to serve in this post when she was sworn in January 21, 2009. Her record on immigration has leading immigration activists questioning her “smart” reform stance along with the fact that the state of Arizona leads the country in the number of immigrant deaths annually along the border.

It should be pointed out that the two Latino groups: Puerto Ricans and Cuban-Americans do not have an immigration issue as such. Both groups view immigration not an immediate concern: the Puerto Ricans are born U.S. citizens and the Cubans are paroled into the U.S. once they touch dry land. Hence, both have no employment issue for their newly arrived migrants or exiles.

http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_11519751

 

10 Democrats — and some runners-up — who could soon find themselves on the White House Frenemies List:

 

1. Rep. John Conyers Jr. (D-Mich.) — Conyers, the outspoken chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, hasn’t been shy about pressuring Obama — vowing to proceed with investigations into the Bush administration’s sacking of eight U.S. attorneys and other potential violations of federal law. Obama has said he prefers to “look forward” and not rehash the past — but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has indicated she’s open to allowing Conyers to proceed. Remember: In the 110th Congress, Conyers had to be talked down from pushing for the impeachment of President George W. Bush. 

2. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) — The incoming chairwoman of the Intelligence Committee forced Obama to apologize after he nominated Leon Panetta to head the CIA without consulting her first. Feinstein is not afraid to break with her party on thorny issues, as she did recently during the Roland Burris affair and last year when she essentially declared Hillary Clinton’s presidential run over before her candidate was ready to concede. Feinstein also may be positioning herself for a 2010 gubernatorial run, a potentially bigger factor for her than making Obama look good.

3. Vice President Joe Biden — Biden survived the campaign, the transition and even Inauguration Day without any Obama-embarrassing verbal gaffes. But on the first full day of the Obama presidency, Biden made a joke — on live TV — about Chief Justice John Roberts’ fumbling of Obama’s swearing-in. Obama, who had tried to smooth over the oath of office glitch, looked visibly unhappy with his VP, touching his arm in a sign that it was time to shut up and move on. If Biden can’t button it — and encourage his wife to do the same — expect to see Obama’s pinched-face look a little more often.

4. Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Calif.) — Waxman, who knocked off John Dingell to become chairman of the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee, is no party maverick: He’s an enthusiastic Obama and Pelosi supporter with a long history of defending Democratic presidents, namely Bill Clinton. But he’s also among the House’s most aggressive proponents of addressing global warming fast, and he recently promised to act “quickly and decisively” in his capacity as committee chairman. The problem is that both Pelosi and Obama have a lot on their plates and want to ring up a series of legislative victories before addressing a controversial, technically complex issue that could create a stalemate. Plus, Waxman’s push for stronger emissions standards could alienate some Rust Belt members whose states depend on coal. Runner-up: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.).

5. Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) — The new head of the Appropriations Committee is old school when it comes to legislative earmarks. This is the same guy, after all, who from 1998 to 2004 steered $1.4 billion to military projects in his state. That puts him at philosophical loggerheads with Obama, who ran against the culture of pork and influence peddling in Washington. “Inouye isn’t going to bend to accommodate” Obama, said a senior Democratic aide. Moreover, this beloved war hero — who stood up for fellow earmarker and former Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) when the latter was convicted on federal fraud counts— is probably reflecting the views of many other Democrats. Said one Senate aide: “That anti-earmark stuff sells nationally, but earmarks are still great politics locally.” Runner-up: Rep. John P. Murtha (D-Pa.).

6. Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) — Obama has carefully courted Boyd, one of the most influential of the pay-as-you-go Blue Dog Democrats — but an unprecedented congressional spending spree and the new administration’s commitment to throwing more aid at flailing banks will create inevitable tensions. Those tensions have been stoked by the new president’s waning commitment to repealing tax cuts for families earning $250,000 or more — a rollback backed by both the Dogs and Pelosi. Some Blue Dogs, many of them newly elected moderates responsible for expanding the Democratic majority in the House, have also shown a willingness to break with party leadership on national security issues — and 15 of them refused to pay Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dues in 2007 over differences with antiwar Democrats. But with $1.2 trillion in government spending at hand and the worst economy in 75 years, budget hawks are not exactly in vogue in the Democratic Party, so Blue Dogs may be diminished. Runners-up: Reps. Heath Sh uler (D-N.C.) and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.).

7. Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) As chairman of the Finance Committee, Baucus has often infuriated liberals with his pro-business positions and his penchant for striking deals with Republican Chuck Grassley. If Obama chooses to govern from the middle, he could find a key ally in Baucus. But trying to enact the tax, health and trade policies he touted on the campaign could hit a roadblock if Baucus doesn’t give them his blessing.

8. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) — The head of the Congressional Black Caucus represents several potential fault lines between Obama and Hill Democrats. As a CBC leader with a lock on her Oakland district (and a solid relationship with Pelosi), she’s secure enough to buck the White House if she thinks that Obama is taking African-American support for granted. She is also a founder of the Out of Iraq and Progressive caucuses — and she stood up to Bill Clinton on his use of military force in Iraq and Serbia — so she won’t be shy in criticizing the administration if it tarries on withdrawing from Iraq. Runner-up: Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.).

9. Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) — Because none of his fellow Democrats ever know what he will do or say.

10. Michelle Obama — She’s glamorous, she’s on message, she’s the nation’s favorite mom — and now she has nowhere to go but down. The press, which helped savage Michelle Obama for her “proud of my country” remark during the campaign, has since built her into a 21st century Jackie O. With the spotlight shining so brightly on her now, any misstep by the first lady — a slip of the tongue, a too-frank statement, any disagreement with the administration’s positions — could reflect harshly on her husband.

 

Compiled from www.politico.com

THE GOOD: Hopeful American Dreams in San Antonio’s Suburbs

 

It’s unclear what prompted my nine-year old nephew to halt his action figure grudge-match between masked wrestlers to ask, “Is Martin Luther King’s dream coming true on the day he gave his speech or the day he died?“

It seems hope is alive in America. From a nine year old Latino boy in a San Antonio suburb to the millions of Americans gathered in our nation’s capitol to honor the embodiment of Dr. Martin Luther King’s dream at the inauguration of Barack Obama, America’s 44^th President.

Hope is alive today and has taken hold throughout the country. Eight of ten Americans hold high hopes for Obama according to an ABC poll. Read more. . .

http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-01-15-voa57.cfm

 

THE BAD: It’s Still the Economy Stupid!

A new report by the Pew Hispanic Center says concerns about the economy far surpass those about immigration, a topic that got far more attention in Congress and the first half of the U.S. presidential campaign.

“The issue appears to have receded in importance among one of the groups most affected by it — Latinos,” the Pew report says. “Only three in ten (31 percent) Latinos rate immigration as an ‘extremely important’ issue facing the incoming Obama administration.”

Immigration came in sixth on a list of seven policy priorities.

The top issue? The economy. That is, jobs, homes, feeding their children.

These are exactly the same reasons immigrants come into the country illegally and legally. Coming in second and third were education and health care. The study also found Latinos to be optimistic about the future and Obama’s presidency.

Here’s a link to the report, http://pewhispanic.org/reports/report.php?ReportID=101

From Elaine Ayala’s Latino Life blog,

http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/latinlife/2009/01/a-year-and-a-half.html

 

THE UGLY:  Latinos forced to organize their own Inaugural festivities

 

Tony Plana, who plays Betty’s father in the television series “Ugly Betty,” said he was ecstatic about President-elect Barack Obama’s victory. He said an Obama administration could improve the lives of all minorities.

But he also said Hispanics deserved a better spot on the inaugural festivities list.

“It’s a concern this event tonight is not an official event of the administration. It’s a little sad for me Latinos had to organize their own event,” Plana said. He said he hoped it did not mean Hispanics would be relegated to a back seat. The event was organized by the National Council of La Raza and other Hispanic organizations.

 

Read more. . .

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-ap-inauguration-latinos,0,3164709.story